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Subject:FW: UBS Business Jet Survey: Index Reflects Fear of Slowdown, Market Looks Stable
To:J. Epstein ([email protected])
From:Lesley Groff
From Address:[email protected]
Date:03/05/2008, 01:46:51 PM

 

 

From: Sean J. Lancaster [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, March 05, 2008 8:23 AM
To: '([email protected])'; 'Alan Goldman'; 'Alex Hsu'; 'Amy Lopez'; 'Bart Cohen'; 'Becky Merrill '; 'Bill Houston'; 'Bill McCleod'; 'Candace J. Covington'; 'Christian Kennedy'; [email protected]; 'Dave Rodgers'; 'David M. Zucchero '; 'Doug Kelly'; 'Ed McNair'; 'Eileen M. Gleimer Esq.'; 'Helen Kim'; 'Jack Gulbin'; 'Jay Jordan'; 'Josh Tarnow'; 'Ken Gilman'; 'Kieth Christian'; Lesley Groff; 'Mark Ringel'; 'McLemore, Samantha'; 'Pete Seidlitz'; 'Rob Zeitinger'; 'Royce L. Stevens'; 'Stacey DeRocher'; 'Tim Ritchie ([email protected])'; 'Tim Stehle ([email protected])'; 'Todd Crowley'; 'Wally Andrushenko'
Subject: FW: UBS Business Jet Survey: Index Reflects Fear of Slowdown, Market Looks Stable

 

 

This months reports, trending towards a slowdown

 

Best regards

 

 

Sean J. Lancaster

Bristol Associates Inc.

1-540-665-5135 direct

1-202-682-4000 ext 1130 Main Office

1-540-533-8183 Mobile

1-540-301-0050 FAX

[email protected]

www.bristolassociates.com

 

This message may contain confidential and/or legally privileged information.  If you are not the intended recipient of the message, please destroy it. Any unauthorized dissemination, distribution or copying of the material in this message, and any attachments to the message, is strictly forbidden. (c) 2007 all rights reserved.

 

From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Wednesday, March 05, 2008 8:14 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: UBS Business Jet Survey: Index Reflects Fear of Slowdown, Market Looks Stable

 

  • February index score at 48: Our business jet index came in at 48, 11% below our January survey and the first time it has fallen below 50 since June 2003, implying slight weakening in bizjet market conditions along with fear that market will fall further. However, we believe still strong business conditions and positive used indicators reflect a relatively stable market bumping up against tough comparisons.
  • Respondents pessimistic on outlook, but see no slowing yet: Our survey results were primarily driven by our lower outlook score as nearly 50% of respondents stated they expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next 12 months. We think this reflects fear of the unknown as opposed to anything tangible as respondents at the same time continue to cite a strong market, with current business conditions just off their all time high.
  • Used market indicators remains positive: The used market indicators that we track generally remain positive as used inventories remain low and pricing increased slightly from Dec and is up 12% y/y.
  • Buy recommendations on GD/TXT: We believe strong demand in 2006-07 and the ramp up in new light jets will drive deliveries and earnings higher through 2010. Trading at 13-14x forward EPS we think GD/TXT already appropriately reflect likelihood for orders to slow to more normal levels in 2008.

 

Please see our full note attached.

David

<<Bizjet_Survey_030508.pdf>>
David Strauss
UBS Investment Research
U.S. Aerospace & Defense
(212) 713-6185
[email protected]

UBS Traders:
Tor Sippel (203) 719-7400; [email protected]
Brian Dineen (203) 719-7400; [email protected]